Scottish Labour: Would changing leader make any difference to the party's fortunes? – Ian Swanson

With Richard Leonard determined to carry on as Scottish Labour leader, it may be optimistic to think the party has a replacement who could have the same degree of success as Canada’s Justin Trudeau

Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard has no intention of quitting (Picture: Jane Barlow/PA)

It’s 13 years since Labour lost power in Scotland and in that time the party has had six leaders, each of them chosen with the aim of helping it get re-elected – but instead Labour has slipped to third place at Holyrood behind the Tories.

With less than eight months to go until the next elections, some Labour MSPs are calling for Richard Leonard, who was elected three years ago, to stand down and make way for a seventh leader.

So far, however, Mr Leonard has made clear he has no intention of quitting and is instead expected to go on the offensive.

Those pressing for a change must have watched enviously the Tories’ ruthless coup against their leader Jackson Carlaw, who was ousted in July with his successor already lined up to step in. Far from having it all stitched up in advance, the Labour rebels have not even decided who they want to put forward to be the new leader.

Mr Leonard has insisted he has a mandate to lead the party into the 2021 elections and the group calling on him to resign have underestimated him if they expect him to abandon that. “They thought he would crumble – a few resignations from the frontbench and he’d be gone,” said one Leonard supporter.

“For us to be fighting among ourselves at a time when people are losing their lives and people’s jobs are at risk because of Covid is a dereliction of duty and he’s not prepared to allow that to happen.”

His critics claim that while he’s a decent man, Mr Leonard has failed to make any impression with voters – indeed more than half have no idea who he is.

It is difficult for a party to retain its profile or command the same attention when it has gone from second place to third – and that was the situation Mr Leonard inherited when he won the leadership in 2017.

And of course it doesn’t help that the dominant issue on the Scottish political agenda for many years has been the independence question. Labour does not want Scotland to leave the UK but neither is it comfortable with the tub-thumping unionism of many Tories, so in a polarised debate it is not in a strong position.

There is talk of a no-confidence motion against Mr Leonard at next weekend’s meeting of the party’s Scottish executive committee.

But even if the rebels could force him out, there is not much time for a prolonged leadership election, which might point to a “coronation” of a yet-to-be-decided successor.

And many may wonder whether a new leader would really be able to turn things around, especially in time for the elections next May.

The rebels, however, claim a change at the top could give the party an opportunity. One said optimistically: “Justin Trudeau took over as leader of Canadian Liberals less than a year before the election there in 2015 and took his party from third place to first – so it can be done.”

The calls for him to go have put Mr Leonard in the headlines and ironically may have drawn him to the notice of some of those voters who have not previously paid him any attention. He is now expected to capitalise on the exposure with a media offensive to reinforce his message and make clear his determination to stay and fight a strong campaign next year.

It may be unrealistic for Labour to hope to top the poll, but beating the Tories for second place would be a win.

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