General election 2024: Much at stake for all parties, but Tories start campaign looking like biggest losers

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There’s a lot at stake for all the parties as they throw themselves into the general election following Rishi Sunak’s surprise announcement last week - but the Tories start the campaign looking like the biggest losers.

After 14 years in power, it's not unusual for a party to be facing likely election defeat but the Tories' time in charge which included Brexit, Partygate and Liz Truss's disastrous premiership - has left the party risking not just defeat but humiliation.  

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, soaked in rain, announces July 4 as the date of the general election. Picture: AFP via Getty ImagesPrime Minister Rishi Sunak, soaked in rain, announces July 4 as the date of the general election. Picture: AFP via Getty Images
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, soaked in rain, announces July 4 as the date of the general election. Picture: AFP via Getty Images | Getty

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The campaign got off to a bad start with Rishi Sunak's decision to announce the election standing outside in the pouring rain with no umbrella and his words almost drowned out by a protester playing "Things can only get better". And the party’s sense of doom has been reinforced by the ever-growing list of MPs opting to stand down.

With tax cuts and the Rwanda policy having failed to boost Tory poll ratings, Mr Sunak reached for another idea from the right-wing repertoire - bringing back national service, which was scrapped in the UK in 1960. The policy is aimed at voters who might switch from the Tories to Reform, but Labour has ridiculed it as a “teenage Dad’s Army”.

Labour is miles ahead in the polls, but after previous election disappointments the party is taking nothing for granted. They are 20 points ahead in the polls, but a Labour victory would require a bigger swing than Tony Blair got in the party's 1997 landslide.  And while promising "change", Keir Starmer is being ultra cautious about the commitments he makes.

If the polls are right, the SNP could lose many of its 43 Westminster seats, leaving Labour as the party with the most Scottish MPs. New  SNP leader John Swinney is less than three weeks in the job and cannot be blamed for a poor result. He seems to have succeeded in uniting a divided party, but he may not be able to change its electoral fortunes in the wake of the party’s ongoing troubles.

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Commentators suggest this could be the first election in Scotland since the 2014 independence referendum where the constitution is not the dominant issue. Although support for independence remains high, voters may decide the priority is getting rid of a Tory government.

And Lib Dems look set to help in that task by taking seats in traditionally Conservative areas south of the border. If they make bi enough inroads in the so-called "blue wall" they could even replace the SNP as the third party in the Commons. 

Harold Wilson famously said a week was a long time in politics. There are just over five weeks to go until polling day on July 4 - but it will be here before you know it.

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