General election 2024: What will future hold for Tories and Reform UK after July 4?

Rishi Sunak’s days at Number Ten look numbered - and the battle to succeed him as Tory leader is already under way.

Given the current mood of the party, the winner is likely to come from the right. Early favourites are said to include former Home Secretaries Priti Patel and Suella Braverman, former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick, Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch, and - perhaps seen as more moderate - Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt.

Priti Patel (left) is one of the contenders to be the next Tory leader. What attitude will the party take towards Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage? | Collage

There are suggestions the Conservatives could be reduced to fewer than 100 MPs at the election in July 4, but such a historically dire result for what has traditionally been one of the most successful political parties in the western world feels quite difficult to believe.

Meanwhile, the rise of Nigel Farage's Reform UK has been described by polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice as "an utter disaster" for the Tories.

One poll last week showed Reform edging ahead of the Tories, prompting Mr Farage to claim: "We are now the real opposition to Labour".  The figures - 19 per cent for Reform, 18 for the Tories - were well within the margin of error, but symbolically important nevertheless.

Professor Curtice says virtually all those switching to Reform are people who voted Conservative in 2019 - the section of the electorate most crucial to any Tory hopes in this election.

Mr Farage may get elected as MP for Clacton-on-Sea - his eighth attempt to enter the Commons - but it seems unlikely he will have many colleagues alongside him.

Nevertheless, if Mr Farage does get into parliament, a defeated and diminished Tory party will face a dilemma on how to handle the situation, as former Conservative MP David Gauke has pointed out. If the Tories decide to embrace Mr Farage, they risk being taken over by him; if they opt to snub him, there could be Tory MPs who defect to Reform.

A Conservative Home survey of Tory members found a majority backing some kind of pact with Reform in the election and offering Mr Farage the Tory whip if he gets elected.

Mr Farage has said he thinks "something new" will emerge on what he calls the centre right and made clear he would be happy to lead a merged party.

There’s no doubt Mr Farage’s rerurn as Reform UK leader has set the cat among the Tory pigeons.

But it's worth remembering that just a couple of weeks ago he was not interested enough to even bother standing in this election and believed it was more important to go off to the States to campaign for Donald Trump.