Hamilton by-election prompts rethink of assumptions about 2026 Holyrood elections

But when the votes were counted in last week's Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, it was Labour who emerged as the winners with a majority of 602, overturning the SNP's majority of more than 4,500 in 2021 - a swing of 7.42 per cent from the SNP to Labour.

Amid poor poll ratings,and after the party’s humiliation in last month's Runcorn and Helsby by-election, where it lost the seat to Reform, this was a major boost for Labour.

Labour's Davy Russell celebrates with Anas Sarwar, Jackie Ballie and Monica Lennon after winning the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images | Getty Images

And with the Scottish Parliament elections less than a year away, it prompts a rethink of the assumption that the SNP is on course for a fifth term in power at Holyrood.

Labour’s landslide general election victory last July encouraged hopes that Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar could oust John Swinney as First Minister and end nearly two decades of SNP rule next May. But a series of unpopular decisions by the new Labour government at Westminster, including means-testing winter fuel payments, led to plummeting poll figures and seemed to put paid to the party’s chances in Scotland.

Reacting to the Hamitlon result, Mr Sarwar claimed it showed a rejection of the SNP because of its record in Government, as well as a rejection of Nigel Farage and Reform. But he also acknowledged people wanted the UK Labour government to “go further and faster in making a difference to people's lives”.

The SNP’s continuing poll lead after18 years in government cannot be easily dismissed and Reform’s 26 per cent of the vote shows it is a serious threat, but Labour nevertheless has good reason to be heartened by the Hamilton victory.

Commentators have warned against reading too much into the win and rightly point out the parties’ performances in Hamilton were roughly in line with Scotland-wide polling which shows SNP support 15 points down on the 2021 Holyrood election and Labour support two points down.

But the fact remains that Labour has won a fiercely-fought by-election which they were widely expected to lose badly and have taken a seat from the SNP who were seen as more or less certain victors next year.

And that gives Labour a new momentum in their drive to win power at Holyrood.