Local elections will be first big electoral test for all the parties since 2024 general election

It's another year before the Holyrood elections and Scotland's councils are not up for grabs until 2027. But results from south of the border could prove important.

Polls suggest there has been a significant shift in public opinion since Labour was elected with a 174 majority last July.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer speaking at the launch of the Labour Party local election campaign. Picture: Jonathan Brady/PA Wire

But it's not only Sir Keir Starmer and his colleagues facing the voters' verdict. The Tories are preparing for a bad night and there has been speculation that opposition leader Kemi Badenoch may even be ousted as a result.

And the local elections will also be a key test for Reform and its leader Nigel Farage. They are riding high in the polls and are predicted to do well not just at council level but also in the Westminster by-election being held in Runcorn and Helsby on the same day.

Reform's breakthrough at the general election saw it win its first Commons seats - five of them, now reduced to four following the fallout between Mr Farage and Rupert Lowe. The party is also tipped to win seats in the Scottish Parliament next year.

But its rise has been talked up so much that failure to make a really good showing on Thursday could mean a setback.

The Tories - almost certain to lose ground since the seats at stake were last won in 2021 when the parry was at a high in the polls - are now divided on their response to Reform: whether to work with it or distance themselves from it.

Ms Badenoch is hedging her bets - ruling out a national coalition but leaving it to local Tories to cooperate with Reform if they want. Arguably it could end up being the worst of both worlds: rejecting a path back to power at Westminster but refusing to make a principled stand against right wing populism.

And the Tories' focus on what to do about Reform means the party is in danger of ignoring the threat from the Lib Dems, who took crucial votes from the Tories at the general election and are expected to do well at the local elections.

UK politics is in a state of flux and Thursday’s results may give a clearer picture of just how the land lies.