Scottish Parliament elections 2026: Biggest unknown is how big a presence Reform UK will have at Holyrood
In a world where very little is certain, one thing is almost guaranteed: Scottish politics in 2026 will be dominated by the Holyrood elections and their outcome.
Indeed, we might see it as a year of two halves - before Scottish Parliament election day on Thursday May 7 and after.
The first half will see relentless, high-octane campaigning by the rival parties to solidify their support, win over doubters and demolish their opponents in order to win as many seats as possible.
In the second half, those parties face coming to terms with whatever the voters have decided. That could mean some unexpected victories or defeats, potentially some tricky arithmetic from the make-up of the new parliament and very likely the arrival of a new party.
The prospect of Reform UK winning seats for the first time and the question of how many MSPs they might get is the biggest unknown of the election.
There are reasons to be sceptical of how well Reform will do. Nigel Farage is far less popular here; the party has next to no organisation on the ground in Scotland; most of its candidates are likely to be unknown and untried; it has yet to develop a full policy programme; and when it comes to putting their cross on a ballot paper to choose Scotland's next government, will voters really be prepared to back a party frequently labelled racist?
There is also the potential for people opposed to Reform to vote tactically to keep the party out, as seen in the Caerphilly by-election where Reform had high hopes of victory, but which was won by Plaid Cymru.
Nevertheless, polls show Reform with strong support in Scotland and some even suggest it will become the second largest party and main opposition in Holyrood.
And it secured its first local government victory in Scotland when it won the Whitburn and Blackburn ward on West Lothian Council in December.
The other parties will have to work hard over the next few months if they want to stop Nigel Farage's party becoming a sizeable presence in the Scottish Parliament.