Edinburgh and Lothian seats predicted to see Labour gains from SNP at general election

Labour set to gain four seats in Lothian, according to new YouGov poll

Labour is set to gain four of the seven Lothian seats which the SNP won at the last general election, according to a new UK-wide poll.

The You Gov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that Labour will sweep to power, winning a total of 385 seats while the Tories lose more than half their current MPs, slumping to just 169. The 11.5 per cent swing to Labour would give Sir Keir Starmer an overall majority of 120.

Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, would be one of 11 Cabinet ministers to lose their seats. And every “Red Wall” seat which the Tories won from Labour under Boris Johnson in 2019 would be lost in an outcome being compared to Tony Blair’s 1997 Labour landslide.

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According to the poll, the SNP would be reduced from its current 43 seats to just 25.

In Lothian, Labour is predicted to win Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, defeating the SNP's Tommy Sheppard, as well as Midlothian, currently held by Owen Thompson for the SNP, and the new constituency of Bathgate & Linlithgow, notionally an SNP seat. Labour would also win the renamed Lothian East, where Kenny MacAskill was elected for the SNP but later switched to Alba.

The SNP ould hold on to its other three seats in the area, with Deidre Brock getting back in Edinburgh North & Leith, Joanna Cherry being re-elected in Edinburgh South West and Hannah Bardell being returned in Livingston.

Labour's Ian Murray would be re-elected in Edinburgh South, as would Lib Dem Christine Jardine in Edinburgh West.

Predicted to lose their seats: Tommy Sheppard (Edinburgh East), Owen Thompson (Midlothian) and Kenny MacAskill (East Lothian).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said his “working assumption” is that the general election will be held in the second half of this year, but he could decide to hold it as late as January 28, 2025.

Lothian seats – what the poll predicts

Edinburgh North & Leith - SNP hold

Edinburgh East & Musselburgh - Lab gain from SNP

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Edinburgh West - Lib Dem hold

Edinburgh South - Lab hold

Edinburgh South West - SNP hold

Lothian East - Lab gain from SNP

Midlothian - Lab gain from SNP

Livingston - SNP hold

Bathgate & Linlithgow - Lab gain from SNP