General Election 2024: Exit poll shocks Scotland as SNP predicted to win just 10 seats

Eyebrows were raised at the projection of just 10 seats for the SNP, down 38 from their number last time, and the idea the Tories would emerge with 12 - double their total in 2019.   

Scottish Conservative chairman Craig Hoy said:  "Exit polls have been wrong in the past; we should treat them with caution; and I would be very surprised if that's the sort of result we come out with."  

Edinburgh University politics professor Ailsa Henderson said the exit poll was based on sampling 133 polling areas across Britain, 18 of which were in Scotland.

The exit poll results are in

"That's six more than in 2019, but basing a national level figure on 18 locations is a difficult ask."

She said it was particularly difficult because Scottish seats were on average more marginal than English seats. They were also more volatile and more diverse, with different patterns of tactical voting in different seats.

And polling guru Professor John Curtice, a key figure behind the exit poll, acknowledged the numbers of which they were least confident were the 13 projected seats for Reform south of the border and the picture in Scotland.

He said:  "If we have to some degree, maybe only mildly, overestimated Labour's advantage over the SNP, then maybe the SNP figure will be higher than 10.  That said, I think we're going to have to be seriously wrong if it's going to be anything other than the Labour party emerging with the most seats north of the border."

The exit poll predicts that, across the UK, Labour will win 410 seats, Conservatives 131, Lib Dems 61, Reform UK 13, SNP 10 and other 25.