Labour set to lose Midlothian and East Lothian to SNP, according to massive poll

Seat-by-seat projections of how the general election will go

Thursday, 28th November 2019, 1:32 pm
Updated Thursday, 28th November 2019, 2:23 pm
Kenny MacAskill - tipped to win for the SNP in East Lothian

LABOUR is set to lose both Midlothian and East Lothian to the SNP in the general election, according to a massive poll which predicts Boris Johnson winning an overall majority in the Commons.

The YouGov survey also shows the Lib Dems and SNP neck-and-neck in Edinburgh West, Labour holding on to Edinburgh South and the Tories pushing Labour into third place in Edinburgh North & Leith and the two West Lothian seats.

The seat-by-seat analysis comes as another poll, by Ipsos Mori for STV, put the SNP on 44 per cent with the Tories in second place on 26 per cent, Labour on 16 and the Lib Dems 11.

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Labour's Martin Whitfield won in 2017 and says he can do it again

It suggested the Conservatives could lose around half of their 13 Scottish seats even if they achieve an overall majority UK-wide. The Ipsos Mori poll figures would give the SNP 48 seats, the Tories six, Lib Dems four and Labour just one.

The YouGov poll of over 100,000 voters modelled voting preferences based on age, gender, education, past vote and other factors, along with local political circumstances, and applied to the demographic makeup and individual characteristics of each seat across the UK.

The nationwide findings had the Conservatives on 43 per cent at UK level to Labour's 32 per cent with the Lib Dems on 14 per cent and the Brexit Party and the Greens on three per cent each.

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In East Lothian - where Martin Whitfield, Labour's victor last time, is being challenged by former SNP Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill - the poll puts the SNP on 34 per cent to Labour's 29, the Tories' 26 and the Lib Dems' ten.

In Edinburgh West, where Lib Dem Christine Jardine won the seat back from the SNP last time, both parties are on 34 per cent with the Tories on 20, Lib Dems nine and Greens four.

Labour's Ian Murray would win again in Edinburgh South with 49 per cent of the votes, the SNP on 23, the Tories 15, Lib Dems 10 and Greens three.

According to the poll, the SNP would hold onto Edinburgh North & Leith with 41 per cent, but the Tories would come second on 21 and Labour third on 18 with Lib Dems on 12 and Greens five.

In Edinburgh South West it suggests the SNP's Joanna Cherry would win again with 43 per cent, with Tories on 27, Labour 12, Lib Dems 11, Greens four and Brexit two.

And in Edinburgh East. Tommy Sheppard is predicted to hold the seat for the SNP with 45 per cent, while Labour is on 25, the Tories 16, Lib Dems 10 and Greens five.

In Livingston, the poll shows the SNP well ahead on 43 per cent, but the Tories runners-up on 25, with Labour on 22, the Lib Dems eight and Greens three.

Next door in Linlithgow & East Falkirk, a similar pattern has the SNP on 41 per cent, Tories 27, Labour 18, Lib Dems eight and Brexit Party and Greens three each.

Kenny MacAskill, predicted to oust Labour in East Lothian, said he was taking nothing fro granted.

But he said: "The poll picks up what we're sensing on the ground - the SNP vote is firming up, the Labour vote is receding, but it is all there to play for.

"We didn't vote for Boris Johnson, we didn't vote for Brexit and the danger is we're getting Boris's Brexit. It's Scotland's right to choose its own future."

But the Labour candidates tipped to lose their seats were not discouraged by the poll.

Danielle Rowley, in Midlothian, said: "In 2017 all the polls were showing we had absolutely no chance in Midlothian yet I was elected the MP.

"We're not taking anything for granted but the more people we speak to, the more we hear people are are really fed up with the way the government is being run, with never-ending Brexit chaos and a lot of devolved issues come up as well - the NHS, education, council funding.

"A lot of people are saying we need change, we need to vote out whoever has been making this mess."

And in East Lothian, Martin Whitfield said: "It's exactly what was being said in 2017. We did it then and we can do it again now.

"It's a very similar situation. I'm the only Union candidate who can beat the SNP and that's what this poll shows. The fight is on.

"The bottom line is East Lothian, as it voted in the independence referendum, don't want to leave the Union."