Hibs ahead on points - but only ducking Euro knock-out blow will feel like victory for Easter Road side

In a vibes-based era where facts are too quickly dismissed in favour of chuntering on about mood music and feel-good/bad factors, it’s the sort of stat that merits double-checking. Are Hibs actually on track to surpass their points total from last season?

Huh. Doesn’t feel right, does it? But you can’t argue with the maths.

Nor can you imbue one single integer with too great a significance, in a complicated calculation based on multiple factors. Not least the numbers put up by direct rivals.

Still, the fact remains that, at this stage of season 2024-25, with 30 games in the bank, David Gray’s men had accumulated 44 points. They would, of course, go on to add 14 more points over the closing eight games of the campaign – and finish third in the Scottish Premiership with a round of fixtures to spare.

As footballing years go, it takes some beating. Yet Hibs are already ahead of schedule, according to the raw data.

Currently sitting on 47 points after 30 rounds of SPFL top-flight action, Gray can rightly claim that his team have improved in terms of points-per-game. They’ve won one more game (12-11) than at this precise junction last season, and suffered one less defeat. That’s progress.

General versus special relativity

The point of observation changes everything. That applies equally to football as it does to physics.

And that fact that Hibs fans are viewing the campaign from an uncomfortable vantage point, their team sitting FIFTH in the top flight and facing a monumental struggle simply to climb a single place, definitely has an impact on how the numbers hit. Because this season might as well exist in an alternative universe, from an SPFL perspective.

Celtic ran away with the title last year, finishing 17 points clear of nearest challengers Rangers and a thumping 34 points ahead of Hibs. At this stage of the campaign, they’d already opened up a 31-point gap on Gray’s men.

Compare and contrast to the current campaign, where the top four are separated by just 10 points, and the three-way title fight looks destined to go to the wire. The fact that Hearts are still leading the pack is, obviously, a source of further discomfort for Hibs fans.

Even taking emotion out of the equation, though, it’s obvious that hitting last year’s finishing mark – 58 points from 33 games – isn’t going to be nearly enough to finish fourth, never mind third.

So Hibs could easily surpass last season’s points total. Yet finish two places worse off. It’s all relative. Always.

Everybody loves a bit of drama

A 3-3 draw is worth a single point. But there’s an enormous difference, psychologically speaking, between scoring a last-minute equaliser and conceding an injury-time leveller.

Applying the same logic to the season as a whole, as much as Hibs fans suffered during the opening months of Gray’s first campaign as gaffer, everyone absolutely loved the whole rags-to-riches storyline that unfolded from around November/December onwards. Climbing from the foot of the table to secure European football, they were one of the stories of the Scottish season.

This year? Not nearly so many lows, obviously. There was obviously a hangover after their madcap European exploits, as Midtjylland, Partizan and Legia Warsaw were all tackled with gusto.

But Hibs have only lost back-to-back league games ONCE all season. Nothing like the crisis of 12 months earlier.

Edinburgh derby win at Easter Road a highlight

The flip side is that there has been no record-breaking unbeaten run, although they are undefeated in the last four. Recent back-to-back wins over St Mirren and Celtic, the latter a first away victory over the Hoops in 16 years, might have been the start of something … but momentum has been hard to come by.

All will be forgotten, of course, if they beat Motherwell on Saturday. And then again after the split. As long as they keep putting together results either side of those two head-to-head encounters.

With Killie at home and Aberdeen away to come before the top six break away into their own battle for supremacy, there’s plenty to play for. But the time to kick on is now.

Last season, Hibs rounded off their pre-split run with three straight victories (St Johnstone at home, Rangers away and then Dundee at home) to sit on 53 points heading into the home straight. If Hibs can bag a hat-trick of wins to sit on 56 points before the split?

It would be tough to ignore those numbers. Regardless of vibes.

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