Hibs have reasons to be cheerful - and fearful - as low-flying Hearts present beatable derby opposition

Any fan assessment of Hibs’ chances in Sunday’s first Edinburgh Derby of the season may depend on whether they’re a glass half full, glass half empty or half expecting the world to end at any minute sort of personality. Sports don’t build character; they just reveal it. And that applies to punters as much as it does to paid professionals.

So maybe you’re one of those upbeat souls who will be skipping along Easter Road full of optimism on Sunday morning. There are, after all, reasons to be cheerful even in this season of crushing disappointment and calamitous late collapses.

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It hardly needs to be said, however, that there are just as many reasons for Hibs punters to be fearful ahead of this visit of Hearts. Not because they’re particularly worried about the opposition. But because a record of one win from eight league games puts a fairly hefty dent in the boosterism of the most Tigger-like individuals.

Let’s take a look, then, at the good and bad omens gathering in the upper atmosphere ahead of a weekend clash expected to be as tempestuous as ever. Here are a handful of upbeat observations, balanced out by a gathering of gloomy reality checks.

Positive: Performances haven’t been as bad as results

Hibs almost certainly SHOULD have won against both Motherwell and Dundee United. They played well enough in both games, up until the red cards for Nectar Triantis and Joe Newell respectively, to put themselves in control of the contests.

Although this may be surprising given the focus on defensive frailties, in terms of goals conceded, Gray’s men are sitting mid-table. The same goes for expected goals against, a reasonable measure of how many chances they’ve given up in a run of league fixtures that has, let’s not forget, included Celtic at Easter Road and Rangers at Ibrox.

Of all the things that could happen on Sunday, Hearts being gifted a load of scoring opportunities seems among the least likely. A decent starting point for Hibs, right?

Negative: Without more goals, wins will be hard to come by

Plenty will have their opinions over what’s been missing for Hibs of late. Depending on who you listen to, Gray’s boys are lacking heart, leadership, desire, discipline … the list is as long as it is speculative, at times.

The truth is that there are actual footballing reasons behind their inability to turn even good performances into wins or, in the case of their collapse at Tannadice, a draw. Removing a gassed Lewis Miller only to see Chris Cadden limp off within minutes, forcing Martin Boyle to play wing-back in a changed formation, a lack of movement causing defenders to force passes … all can be cited as reasons for falling short.

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What Hibs really need is more composure and creativity in the final third; it’s not as if their return of a goal a game in the league is a particularly poor return on their general play. According to the stats guys at FOTMOB, Hibs have created 12 “big chances” in eight Premiership fixtures, putting them second bottom of the ranking, just ahead of Ross County. At some point, you have to go out and actively beat the opposition.

Positive: Weary Hearts ain’t all that

It’s not just the results. Or the fact that Neil Critchley’s men MUST be fatigued after playing a European game tomorrow night. There are deeper flaws at work in this Hearts team, if only Hibs can locate and exploit them.

Critchley has tweaked a few things tactically. And he certainly enjoyed a new manager bounce in the weekend thumping of St Mirren at Tynecastle.

But crossing the city should ALWAYS be daunting for the Jambos. If this Hibs team have anything about them, they’ll make life as nasty, gnarly and uncomfortable as possible for players who should be carrying a few heavy legs after tomorrow’s Conference League clash with Omonia.

Negative: Pick a goalie, any goalie …

This may be the biggest decision of David Gray’s short managerial career to date. To stick with Josef Bursik (pictured below). Or twist with … well, who, exactly?

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The issue is no longer about Bursik’s ability or even his predicted performance under fire in a derby. It’s about whether his defenders trust him or not.

Even a fleeting fear that the No. 1 is going to come clattering out to do something ill advised can force players to step half a yard deeper, or rush things when they might have time to play. That sort of doubt can cost teams dearly.

The problem with dropping Bursik, beyond what it does to the player himself in the short term, is that Jordan Smith has been cast very much in the role of back-up. Max Boruc? He has played – and played well – in an Edinburgh derby before, coming off the bench late in last October’s 2-2 draw at Tynecastle. But promoting a 21-year-old who hasn’t even been on the bench would be a very bold move, indeed.

Positive: Expectations are low

This is where the psychology comes into things. Although a derby is slightly different, you could get even odds on most Scottish Premiership managers – barring the obvious - trying to portray themselves as underdogs on any given weekend; it’s almost seen as vulgar to suggest that your team SHOULD win a game.

In this instance, Hibs fans really only expect their team to turn up, front up, stand up to be counted – and give absolutely everything to make life horrible for the opposition. Beyond that, anything is a bonus.

Negative: There’s a reason for those low expectations

The hardest thing to do, in any team sport, is drag yourselves out of a rut. For all the footballing ability and intelligence available to Gray, generating momentum from a standing start is like trying to capture lightning in a bottle.

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Gray is right, of course, when he says that Sunday’s game provides his team with an opportunity to kick start their season. In his situation, he has to accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative – and seek to inspire belief in a group of players who have been kicked from pillar to post, emotionally and mentally, during a brutal opening stretch of the campaign.

Will he find the right blend of bravado and belligerence needed to beat a bang-average Hearts team, instantly lifting the mood not merely of his squad but the entire Hibs supporter base? That’s why we play the game. To find out.