Hibs SHOULD stand by Gray - but will they? Problems won't be solved by changing gaffer AGAIN

Logic and recent history teach us that simply swapping out David Gray for AN Other Coach will make minimal difference to the fortunes of a Hibs team reflecting years of mangled mismanagement from on high. If we’ve learned anything about this Easter Road board, however, it’s that logic is often a stranger – and they do love to repeat the mistakes of recent history with alarming regularity.

There is every chance that, at some point tonight or tomorrow, a dreaded Club Statement – note the fondness for capitalising where none is needed – will drop on social media, explaining that Gray and his coaching staff are to step down with immediate effect. There might be a nice line or two wishing the Scottish Cup-winning captain all the best in his future endeavours.

But, in all honesty, what would be the point of changing gaffers now? Who would you appoint next? And would the next man up stand any more chance of succeeding where so many are adjudged to have failed?

True, this afternoon’s 2-1 home loss to St Mirren was a lot worse than the scoreline suggests. The first half alone would be considered a sackable offence, in some circumstances.

Yet it was noticeable that a lot of fans were actually chanting in support of Gray. While directing the sharpest words of criticism towards his immediate superiors.

What did this game tell us that we didn’t already know? Not much. But it’s worth making a few points.

A failure of recruitment

Man for man, Hibs looked as if they had a worse starting XI than St Mirren. That cannot be right.

Too many of the summer signings have come from too far down the footballing ladder or are too ill-suited to the quirks of the Scottish Premiership, to be anything other than bang-average performers in this country’s elite division. And Hibs should be pitching much, much higher when it comes to recruiting talent for a club with ambitions to qualify for European football.

Gray made the point, in his post-match press conference, that nothing substantial is going to change between now and January. This is the squad Hibs – and whoever is in charge of Hibs – will have to work with until the transfer window opens again.

Not for the first time, supporters will ask questions about who is heading up recruitment. How are players filtered before being presented as options to Gray. And which voices are carrying the most heft when it comes to making signings.

Loan dangers

It was noticeable that, of the three players hooked at half-time today, two are only on loan to Hibs. If Warren O’Hora was effectively being removed for his own mental health, neither Nectar Triantis nor Hyeokkyu Kwon could complain about being withdrawn from the front line.

There is always a risk, with players employed by parent clubs far removed from the current battle, that loanees will not give absolutely everything when the chips are down. Sunderland’s Triantis and Celtic’s Kwon did little to dispel those concerns today.

Where’s the threat?

This is where Gray is in danger. If you look at this Hibs team, you don’t see much in the way of cutting edge. And the head coach has to shoulder some responsibility for that.

Elie Youan looked at his most dangerous when he was almost daring fans to berate him at full-time. Dwight Gayle should have been busting a gut to start this game. Players are continuing to let the gaffer down. But it never looked as if Hibs had a workable plan to break St Mirren down.

Who makes the next call?

Hibs could really do with a January window on a par with last season’s wheeling and dealing, when Nick Montgomery was able to pull in Myziane Maolida and Emi Marcondes, among others. That might be dependent on how much co-operation they get from the Black Knights.

But billionaire Bournemouth owner Bill Foley has made it clear that he didn’t want Gray as gaffer or, for that matter, Malky Mackay as sporting director. If help in the transfer market is dependent upon changes in what an American like Foley would call the ‘front office’ at Easter Road, might Ian Gordon be squeezed into making a change?

Gray will obviously be hoping it doesn’t come to that. Although his main focus will remain on turning things around, he’ll know that he’s in a difficult situation.

But what’s the biggest criticism of Hibs, as a club? That they’ve changed managers with ridiculous frequency, undermining any attempts to build a squad or a working game model. Doing the same again makes them look faintly ridiculous.

Having seen any number of managers come and go during his long stint as a player and then coach, Gray will also know that Hibs aren’t renowned for their patience. To hell with logic. And damn the lessons of history.