Opposition focus: How Hibs can beat Livingston - and what the numbers tell us about Easter Road visitors
David Gray’s men in need of morale boost on return to Scottish Premiership
When Hibs welcome Livingston to Easter Road this weekend, David Gray and his men will know exactly what to expect. They will at least be prepared for visitors who represent a sort of identikit model of what it takes to survive and thrive in the Scottish Premiership.
When it comes to actually beating David Martindale’s team, meanwhile, Hibs have recent history on their side. They ran out comfortable 2-0 winners in Livingston back in August, remember, as the Edinburgh side progressed to the quarter-finals of the Premier Sports Cup – and that was a domestic clash squeezed in between two enormous European ties for Gray’s players.
With Livi sitting just two points behind Hibs in the table, though, no-one expects Saturday’s 3 pm kick-off to be anything other than a keenly contested battle for supremacy. Because Martindale’s boys can definitely play. In concerted bursts, anyway.
Gray, aware that his team haven’t lost to Livingston since a 3-2 reversal in Leith in the early weeks of last season, at a time when every best-laid plan seemed to go awry, run amok and be blown away, knows he can’t underestimate a side who are far more than the sum of their parts. Whatever the numbers say.
Most comfortable in the ever-popular 4-2-3-1 formation, Livingston will occasionally throw caution to the wind in a 4-3-3 that, while not exactly a model of total football, certainly puts the opposition under duress. Robbie Muirhead can be expected to lead the line, with Stevie May and Tete Yengi – who stands at six feet and five inches in moulded studs – also involved; there’s something of a theme developing there.
Scott Pittman still Livi key
The guy who makes Livingston tick, though, is wee Scott Pittman. Even at 33, the midfielder is still affecting games, scoring goals – he’s got three so far this season – and upsetting opponents (see photo 1).
The last time these teams met, Hibs scored both of their goals from set pieces. The first was a fine Thibault Klidje header from an in-swinging corner, while the second came from Josh Mulligan screamer after a free-kick wasn’t properly cleared.
Livingston’s main source of chances against Hibs on the day came from free-kicks, corners and balls into the box from all angles. But they can get on the ball and break lines, especially out wide.
Martindale’s men can squeeze opponents
First things first, Hibs may have to play through the occasional high press (see photo 2) as Livingston commit players to squeeze up the park in the hope of forcing a turnover close to the opposition goal. It has worked, intermittently, for Martindale’s side this season.
They tried it a few times against Hibs in that Premier Sports Cup clash (see photo 3), forcing the goalkeeper to go long. But it does mean there are gaps to exploit, if you can get past that first and second line.
Hibs keeper forced to go long
All of this adds up to … well, not a great deal, in terms of the usual criteria. They’ve lost four times in the league already, winning once and drawing the other three.
The stats show that Livingston have given up more scoring opportunities than any other team in the league, going by the expected goals (xG) rating. Which probably explains why they’ve conceded more goals than anyone in the Scottish Premiership, although a few of their ‘rivals’ for that dishonour do have a game in hand.
The only numbers that matter, of course, will be on the big scoreboard at Easter Road on Saturday. With Hibs struggling to put together a run of wins, this arguably represents a really awkward test – the sort of game they SHOULD win, against opponents who just love upending expectations.
Forewarned is forearmed, though. And Hibs, still waiting for a couple of key players to report back from international duty, certainly shouldn’t be surprised by anything the visitors throw at them in this archetypal SPFL fixture.