Hibs v Motherwell: Unstoppable force versus immovable object? Tale of the tape for biggest clash on SPFL card

It’s not quite the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object; Scottish football is far too unstable for that sort of nonsense. Even in this cockamamie campaign of chaotic collapses and upended expectations, however, you’d go a long way to find a more appetising and intriguing contest.

Hibs v Motherwell is Scotland’s game of the weekend for many reasons. A collision between everyone’s favourite freestylers, a team who must occasionally find it difficult to move under the weight of praise that has been hurled at them since Jens Berthel Askou started turning everyone’s heads with his come-hither tactics and alluring possession game, and opponents who have inspired a more restrained sort of admiration for their efforts to date.

Jens Berthel Askou has been a hit at Fir Park

The eyeball test could tell the most myopic observer that Saturday’s Easter Road encounter has the potential to be a meeting of enormous import. A home win puts Hibs ahead of Motherwell, while keeping David Gray’s men within touch of an Old Firm pair most charitably described as, erm, unpredictable. A victory for the Steelmen, meanwhile, would put them five points clear – and maintain talk of something truly spectacular brewing down at Fir Park.

What, then, does the tale of the tape tell us? If we compare, contrast and combine the numbers for both teams, are we any closer to making an accurate guesstimate of what might happen?

Form teams flying high

Taking the last half dozen games as a sample, the Scottish Premiership form table would look pretty encouraging for both Hibs and Motherwell. Rangers sit top with five wins and one loss giving them 15 points. But both Hibs and Motherwell have 13 points from a possible 18, with each having won four, drawn one and lost one.

Hibs have scored a dozen goals and conceded five during those six games, their numbers boosted by three straight victories – over Hearts, Aberdeen and Kilmarnock – with a collective winning margin of 8-3 in favour of Gray’s team. Saturday’s win at Rugby Park saw the Hibees pick up a straight hat-trick of Scottish Premiership triumphs for the first time this season.

Motherwell, meanwhile, have scored eight goals in their last six games. But conceded just one, in a narrow defeat to Rangers at Ibrox.

Firepower in abundance

Despite going through a horrible patch when they seemed almost intent on missing half a dozen major scoring opportunities every time they took to the field, Hibs have actually put together an impressive scoring record. They’re second in the league when it comes to goals per game, with an impressive rate of 1.7 against Motherwell’s 1.4 – a stat that puts the Steelmen fifth in the rankings.

Attacking numbers via FotMob

Gray’s men are also second in the standings when it comes to what the FotMob experts call ‘big chances’ in games, trailing only Celtic with 54 golden opportunities carved out in 21 games. Motherwell aren’t far behind in fourth, with 49 big chances to their credit.

Whatever your issues with expected goals, meanwhile, there’s no doubt that it provides an accurate reflection of the attacking threat posed by a team. Hibs have scored 36 league goals from an xG of 36.1, while Motherwell have found the net 30 times form an xG of 30.5.

Steelmen defence as strong as it looks?

Motherwell lead the league in goals conceded per match (0.8) and clean sheets, with 11 to their credit. Over the course of the league campaign, meanwhile, Hibs have conceded at a clip of 1.1 per game – and have only kept the opposition scoreless in six of their 21 games.

But … yeah, this is where digging a little deeper into the stats can sometimes pay off. And where our old favourite xG comes into play.

Despite conceding 23 goals, Hibs have a BETTER xG conceded than Motherwell, at 23.2. That puts them fourth in the table.

Defensive stats send mixed message

The side currently occupying that spot in the Scottish Premiership, meanwhile, may only have conceded 16 goals. But their xG of 24.8 shows how little there is between the teams.

It’s an imperfect metric. But it does show that Motherwell, who have looked capable of shutting opponents out of games completely, can be vulnerable in the final third. Hibernian’s ability to punish them for that is where this game will be won and lost.

Does possession matter? Ask Wilfried Nancy

All you really need to know about traditional possession stats is that, on paper, Celtic look like one hell of a team. Average possession at just shy of 70 per cent, a good ten per cent ahead of their closest rivals, and a massive advantage in completed passes per match would convince anyone – anyone who hadn’t seen the Hoops play, that is – that the Celtic board were completely nuts to get rid of Wilfried Nancy.

That being said, there is something to be read into Motherwell average nearly 60 per cent possession per game, while Hibs are a point-and-a-half short of winning a 50-50 split with their opponents. Should home fans expect their team to suffer for spells as their team let the visitors pass around them?

Both teams, interestingly, are near the bottom of the Scottish Premiership standings when it comes to winning possession in the final third. High pressing is out, this year, with the cool kids preferring a more nuanced approach.

Your next Hibs read: Flying under the radar no longer an option for Easter Road adventurers