Hibs can wing it to defeat Dons in Euro race showdown - Tactics Zone Special as third place up for grabs

It’s only right, of course, that Hibs are required to traverse a tricky away day in the Granite City on their way to the promise land – they hope against hope – of a third-placed finish and guaranteed European group stage football. Truly fitting that Aberdeen’s fortunes, both at home to David Gray’s men on Saturday and further down the line in their Scottish Cup final against Celtic, should have such a bearing on the mood around East Mains and Easter Road come the end of this frenetic season.

Because it feels as if the Dons have been there for some of the most important defining moments of the campaign. From the famous 3-3 draw at Easter Road back in November - still THE moment of the year for Rocky Bushiri, at least – to comfortable wins for the Hibees both home and away, Jimmy Thelin’s men have at least borne witness to the major turning points.

Having watched them scuffle and scrap their way past Hearts at Hampden on Saturday, few will argue that Thelin’s team have fully rediscovered the blistering form that made them early-season title contenders after a stunning start to the season. Nor are they the same hapless side who went winless between early November and mid-January.

Have they changed all that much during a year of fluctuating fortunes? Have they learned enough to triple team Nicky Cadden? Some things have remained the same. Let’s take a look.

Jimmy Thelin knows what he likes

Aberdeen have lined up in some version of the popular 4-2-3-1 formation for 80 per cent of all minutes played this season, according to the Wyscout stats bods. Sometimes it looks like a 4-4-2, but there isn’t much variation in what they do.

In terms of important numbers, they trail Hibs in terms of goals scored and expected goals (xG). The data also suggests that they’re fond of a searching cross or a long ball into the final third – and that they get more than their share of touches in the opposition box.

Defensively, well, a look back at February’s 2-0 home win for Hibs offers a reminder that they’re not the most aggressive pressing team in Scotland’s elite division. Not when faced with a back three comfortable enough on the ball to bring wingbacks into play as an attacking threat.

Photo 1 | Wyscout

As Photo 1 shows, the Dons deliberately looked to prevent Hibs from playing into their midfielders in that contest at Easter Road. They effectively conceded a lot of territory out wide as a trade-off for keeping Nectar Triantis and Dylan Levitt contained.

Photo 2 | Wyscout

As you can see from Photo 2, Triantis getting on the ball was one of their triggers to pounce, not just because they were worried about the Australian being given time and space. In this instance, they actually win possession and put together a decent counter-attack.

Wide men at your service

So much of what Hibs do is about their wingbacks. Aided and abetted by midfielders who can find them with killer passing.

As Photo 3 (another from the 2-0 win at home) shows, Dylan Levitt isn’t even on the ball yet and Chris Cadden is signalling for it to be switched. Levitt responded – and Hibs created a scoring chance.

Photo 3 | Wyscout

But it’s the ‘other’ Cadden twin who will attract most attention, most likely, when Hibs take the field at Pittodrie. It almost feels like he’s got something personal against them.

Last time out, he scored the killer second by converting a cross from his brother (see Photo 4). What’s interesting here is how Hibs have overloaded the Aberdeen back four, with the left back forced to get into a cover position in case Chris Cadden gets past his man – leaving a 3v3 in the box … plus Nicky stealing in on the blind side.

Photo 4 | Wyscout

Nicky also scored back in the 3-1 away win over Aberdeen just before Christmas (see Photo 5), in a game that went a long way to convincing doubters – otherwise optimistic supporters among them – that Hibs were capable of putting together a concerted run.

Photo 5 | Wyscout

The power Cadden put into the finish shouldn’t cause anyone to overlook the smart rotations that created the opportunity for Martin Boyle to pick him out.

Learning from history

All analysis is looking at the past and trying to predict the future. It is not an exact science.

In a results-driven business like football, it’s important not to focus entirely on the final score to the exclusion of all other criteria. Which means Hibs should be duly wary of Aberdeen ending their remarkable unbeaten run of 17 straight league games this weekend.

Photo 6 | Wyscout

Lost amid the euphoria of such an important win to kick off a raucous festive campaign was the fact that the Dons actually took the lead in that December loss to Hibs through Topi Keskinen’s pace and a bit of indecision in the visiting ranks (see Photo 6). Keskinen got through to threaten the away goal more than once.

Photo 7 | Wyscout

But the starting front three for Hibs on the day – Josh Campbell in behind the pace of Boyle and Elie Youan (see Photo 7) – gave Aberdeen’s defence all sorts of problems, with the forwards both finding the net. While Youan is out injured, Boyle is enjoying his best ever scoring season for Hibs – and always seems to play well in the city of his birth.

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There will be subplots aplenty ahead of Saturday’s game, covering everything from the potential involvement of Jamie McGrath – a substitute against Hearts at the weekend but committed to playing for Hibs next season – to the likelihood of former Hibee Kevin Nisbet putting one over on his old team. All interesting angles to a contest not without its odd quirk. A fixture that feels like yet another definitive showdown between two teams chasing the same prize.

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