The one fatal flaw Hibs MUST address if new manager is to raise Easter Road threat level

The next Hibs manager will arrive, hopefully soon enough, armed with the usual list of priorities and ‘must-do’ tasks for coaches thrust into a position early enough in the season to effect change, but too late to recruit anyone other than the odd free agent. And the general consensus seems to be that, thanks to the work done by David Gray in just over two years at the helm, the new man won’t be required to carry out a complete overhaul of methods or philosophy.

But there is one glaring flaw at the heart of recent disappointing performances. A shortcoming that is holding them back and giving opponents cause to feel unduly comfortable.

In a team still doing a lot right, an inability to build from the back with urgency and accuracy has been their undoing. They need to find a way to consistently hit long, well-placed, testing passes both across the pitch and up the field – or it’s going to be a very wearying season.

Lack of killer ball keeps rivals at ease

SNS Group

Without that weapon in their armoury, Hibs will continue to be preyed upon by Scottish Premiership rivals who will feel comfortable to press and harry the Easter Road side without fear of being pinned back. That’s just a fact borne out by the evidence of our own eyes – and the numbers that, when used wisely, add to everyone’s understanding of the game.

First, some good news. Hibs aren’t a terrible side, by any stretch of the imagination. And, although six rounds of SPFL fixtures doesn’t provide a huge sample size, the statistics do provide evidence to support their case.

Sitting fourth when it comes to expected goals (xG) and third in touches in the opposition box, they are getting the ball into the danger area frequently enough.

Packed penalty areas reduce scoring chances

But too often their deliveries – and they’re third in the league when it comes to accurate crosses per match – are hitting a packed penalty area, reducing the likelihood of the ball dropping to someone in a scoring position. To figure out why, you need to rewind play a phase or two.

Because anyone who watched Hibs struggle for long spells against Aberdeen on Saturday will have been struck, again, by their inability to switch or stretch play with a single telling ball. The lack of a killer cross-field pass or a dangerous and direct ball from deep makes them look very one-paced – and easy to contain.

Dan Barlaser had his flaws and his failings. But what Hibs wouldn’t give, right now, for a central midfielder who could drop deep to get on the ball, turn and play a searching delivery to one of the wide men driving into space – or hit the feet of a striker in a one-on-one situation, with support runners going beyond the last line.

The guys at FotMob keep track of what they call accurate long balls per match. According to their data, Hibs are sitting tenth in Scotland’s top flight on this metric.

Glaring stand-out in attacking statistics

Now, if they happened to be a team built around short, quick passing movements and intricate patterns of play, that wouldn’t be an issue. But they’re not.

And, even if they were trying to break lines in shorter bursts, it only really works – at this level – if you can mix it up with direct passes. That can be side to side, in order to move opposition defences across the pitch until a gap appears, or from back to front.

Against Aberdeen on Saturday, Easter Road punters were ‘treated’ to the sight of midfielders kicking the ball straight into touch as they tried to find wingbacks. Or central defenders hitting nothing passes in the general direction of the front two, without putting the opposition under any real pressure.

Part of it is a problem of personnel. None of the back three who started at the weekend are especially comfortable in stepping into space and playing the killer ball; Jack Iredale is probably the best of those available, although he’s better when playing a short-give-and-go to get involved as an extra attacking threat.

With Warren O’Hora sold to Leicester City on Deadline Day, the injury-enforced absences of Rocky Bushiri and Jordan Obita are being keenly felt not just on the defensive side. Maybe Marko Ivezic, the O’Hora replacement yet to feature because of a virus, will be the answer.

Failing that, someone in midfield will have to step up. Or step back. But who? You really want Josh Mulligan breaking forward with pace and determination to support forwards or wide men, not sitting in front of the back three/four and delivering passes.

Miguel Chaiwa’s energy and running make him another player you’d hate to lose from that area a little higher up the park. Nor is it clear whether Mulligan or Chaiwa could fill the deep-lying playmaker role, even if you chose to put them there.

Every other midfielder on the books is more of an attacking third type. With the exception of Jacob Devaney.

The on-loan Manchester United player was dropped from the starting XI for Saturday, with some justification. But he’s still only 19, remember, and might just need time to get back up to pace with a league he sampled with St Mirren over the second half of last season.

There’s a crucial job going for someone. And not just in the manager’s office at East Mains.

Your next Hibs read: Scott Brown names the three questions his former club must ask in search of new gaffer