Six Nations 2026 round 1 predictions: Italy vs Scotland, France vs Ireland and England vs Wales

The Six Nations is back this week with an unusual Thursday night tournament kick off in Paris as reigning champions France begin their title defence against Ireland.

Scotland will then get the weekend’s action underway in Rome with what is likely to be a tough test against Italy as Gregor Townsend’s men seek a winning start to get their momentum going. Finally, the first round comes to a close on Saturday evening as England host Wales in London with the hosts being tipped by many to lift their first Six Nations trophy since 2020.

Ahead of the action getting underway, Edinburgh Evening News’ sports editor Martyn Simpson makes his predictions for the three opening fixtures. Here is what we expect from France vs Ireland, Italy vs Scotland and England vs Wales:

France vs Ireland

France are the odds on pre-tournament favourites and you only need to take one look at their squad to see why. Fabien Galthié was able to name a 42-man squad and still leave out test level superstars Gael Fickou, Damian Penaud and Gregory Alldritt - such is the strength in depth available to Les Bleus’ head coach.

They won the title last year but missed out on the Grand Slam with a one point defeat to England their only loss. This year they’ll be looking to go one better and will aim to start with another show of force at home similar to the crushing 43-0 victory over Wales that kicked off the 2025 competition.

Standing in their way are a much changed Ireland side who are unfancied ahead of their trip to Stade de France. There was a big call by Andy Farrell as he left out experienced lock Iain Henderson in favour of fresher faces in the second row but he is also missing several likely starters through injury including Robbie Henshaw, Andrew Porter and Mack Hansen.

Bundee Aki will miss the first three matches through suspension while James Lowe and Tadgh Furlong are also out for the opening match. Their depth is tested further with back up loose head props Paddy McCarthy and Jack Boyle also out meaning uncapped Jeremy Loughman will debut in one of the most challenging atmospheres in the sport.

There’s still quality in the team named by Ireland and leadership in both the forwards and the back through Caelan Doris and Jamison Gibson-Park but with so much test level experience missing for the visitors and a frankly ludicrous level of depth from the hosts it is hard to see this one going any other way than a French victory.

Prediction: France to win by 14 points or more. I expect France to win this match and with a bonus point but Ireland should have more than enough fight in them to make this a contest. It won’t be a walk in the park for the hosts but they should have enough to win with a reasonably comfortable final score.

Italy vs Scotland

Another year and hope renews for Scottish rugby supporters. Is this finally the time for a serious push towards title glory? Only time will tell.

There are reasons to be optimistic of course with the fixture schedule falling favourably enough for Gregor Townsend’s side. The head coach also has a decent level of experience and quality outside of just the starting XV for what feels like the first time in a long time.

Then there’s the form of Glasgow Warriors in the URC and Champions Cup which has stirred up a lot of debate around how the starting XV should look for the test match in Rome. All that combined should be enough to fill even the most jaded Scot with some optimism, but we’ve been here before haven’t we?

One thing is for sure, nothing less than a winning start will be enough and standing in the way of that is the perennial banana skin that is Italy away. You just need to look at Scotland’s last trip to the Stadio Olimpico in 2024 to see what comes of taking the Azzurri lightly on their patch.

Italy have avoided the Wooden Spoon two years in a row now, with Wales taking that unwanted prize, and progress must be on their minds ahead of this year’s competition. Make no mistake, they will see a home match against Scotland as a winnable test and will almost certainly look to hit their visitors with power and pace from the first whistle.

Prediction: Scotland to win by 14 points or less. Scotland need a win in Rome or they risk their entire tournament crumbling around them as soon as it gets underway. The difference here could be the bench as Scotland should have something they haven’t in some time - a formidable line-up of replacements to come on and tilt the test in their favour. The prediction here is an even first half with Scotland finishing the stronger and potentially having enough to get a bonus point win over the line.

England vs Wales

England will be looking to do what France did last year and start the tournament with a statement win over Wales on their way to eventually lifting the title. Looking at the form, the smart money is on them doing just that.

The Welsh remain a far cry from the formidable test machine they were throughout the 2010s and a trip to Twickenham is not the match they would have wanted to start with. That being said, if they can pull off something special then that could reignite the Dragon’s fire and give them serious momentum for the rest of the competition.

The 2025 Autumn Internationals were not the new dawn that many Welsh fans had hoped for under Steve Tandy as they conceded over 50 points at home to both Argentina and Australia on top of a 73-0 humiliation at the hands of South Africa. A 24-23 win over Japan spared them the indignity of dropping to third seeds ahead of the Rugby World Cup draw but that’s hardly cause for huge celebration.

England, on the other hand, are on a tear with 11 test match wins in a row including victories over France, New Zealand and a 68-14 crushing of Wales in Cardiff in last year’s Six Nations. Turning that around in 12 months time is a mammoth task for Wales and not one that many expect they will be up to.

Prediction: England to win by 28 points or more. To quote Rocky III antagonist Clubber Lang, “My prediction? Pain.” A bonus point win is coming for England, I’d bet the farm on that right now. Wales need to do what they can to not let the scoreboard runaway from them once again and hopefully they can leave Twickenham with some level of credibility.

Your next rugby read: Three huge Scotland selection decisions facing Gregor Townsend ahead of 2026 Six Nations