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Risk and reward visitors leave gaps for Gray’s men to exploit

It’s a trap. It’s ALWAYS a trap. But there are ways to get through, around and beyond the tactical snares laid by Rangers boss Philippe Clement - a manager undoubtedly buoyed by a first win over Celtic in his seventh crack at the Hoops.

So how do Hibs succeed where the reigning champions and runaway league leaders failed? Which threats are likely to cause David Gray special concern ahead of Sunday’s high noon showdown at Easter Road?

It probably starts with an acceptance that, player for player, the visitors will have an edge in overall quality and ability. The smartest coach in the world may find a way to close that gap - but footballers win games. The guys in the technical area just give them, in theory, the best possible chance to succeed.

Using yesterday’s surprise 3-0 home win at Ibrox as the primary source of opposition intel, a few themes stood out. The ability of Rangers to lure Celtic into turnovers being top of the list. In a modern game where goals from transition are of huge importance, doing this well makes a significant difference.

The Light Blues are also still prone to taking risks, though. If Hibs are bold enough, they might - just might - be able to make them pay for that boldness.

Photo 1 illustrates rather neatly how Rangers like to press as a unit, with three players effectively forcing Celtic up a blind alley. There is only one option, beyond knocking the ball long, and it is quickly closed down. We can certainly expect the away side to bring this sort of pressure to bear on Hibs.

The opening goal at Ibrox, meanwhile, comes from simply closing off options further up the field - and teasing the Celtic defender to play a high-risk pass into a dangerous area (See Photo 2). Trying to play that ball into such a tight window is taking a huge chance. Hibs beware, then.

Since switching to a 3-4-1-2 formation, Hibs have made good use of their wingbacks, with Nicky Cadden turning in some outstanding performances on the left, and twin brother Chris competing for a starting position with Lewis Miller - also deputising on the right of a back three - on the right. If they’re going to make use of the flanks against Rangers, accuracy will be everything.

As Photo 3 shows, Celtic think they’re doing the low-risk thing by playing this ball out wide. But Rangers squeeze and pinch as soon as the ball is played (Photo 4) - and it leads to the killer third goal.

Clement’s men were clearly working to very specific triggers yesterday. They’ll have similar jumping-off points in mind for Hibs, knowing exactly when they should sit off - and when they need to close the distance to the man in possession.

Photo 4 - Celtic's wide man is mugged as Rangers score another goal in transition. | Wyscout

Priority 1 for Hibs, then, is to take care of the ball. If that means recycling possession, fine. If it occasionally requires a channel ball for one of the strikers to chase, don’t hesitate. Especially not if there’s a light blue blur tearing into shot.

A lot will depend, of course, on who is available to Gray. Joe Newell does a lot of work that goes unnoticed. Until he’s absent, when you start to notice all sorts of gaps both with and without the ball. Having the club captain fit doesn’t guarantee anything, but it gives Hibs a better chance of implementing the gaffer’s game plan with a deeper understanding of what is required.

Having Elie Youan fit to play up front alongside Martin Boyle would also help. There are acres of space to be found on the outside of the Rangers centre-backs, and two natural wide men playing as a strike pairing would be ideal for exploiting those areas. Clement’s men also tend to be a bit sloppy about packing that area just outside the penalty box with bodies; Josh Campbell might be able to wreak some havoc there, should the visitors switch off for even a moment.

It’s also true that Rangers play with an element of risk. Look at the goals they concede and you’ll find that, on more than one occasion, they’ve simply over committed to an attack. And go into something of a panic mode when asked to deploy a scramble defence.

Even in yesterday’s game, they gambled a great deal on winning the one-v-one battles. Relying on one man to get to the ball first - or pay a heavy price, as Photo 5 illustrates. Had Celtic managed to get first contact on this ball, they would have been on the attack - with numbers on their side.

Photo 5 - Ridvan Yilmaz had to win this ball or Celtic were away on the counter, with numbers on their side. Rangers WILL take risks of being hit hard in transition - and it doesn't always work out for them. | Wyscout

Gray has some choices to make, then. He may tweak things the way he did for last month’s visit to Celtic Park, going to a more defensive 5-4-1 without the ball. But Rangers, despite yesterday’s win, don’t carry quite the same multitude of threats as their newly-vanquished rivals.

When these teams last met, at Ibrox back in September, a struggling Hibs - without Newell, Youan, Boyle or Nicky Cadden - actually turned in one of their best performances of the season, despite losing 1-0. Although the home side dominated possession, the visitors missed a penalty AND squandered another couple of good chances on the day. They are undoubtedly a better side now.

In the right circumstances, Rangers could actually be there for the taking. Could. If Hibs have everyone - barring the long-term absentees - fit. And if they can avoid the beartraps being laid for them on home turf.

Hibs Correspondent John Greechan is a UEFA qualified coach who holds a Certificate in Advanced Tactical Analysis from Barca Innovation Hub Universitas.

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