Hibs eye soft landing as THREE Euro parachutes cushion impact of Cup winners Aberdeen pinching UEFA guarantee
Celtic failure at Hampden sees Dons straight into Conference League - so what happens to Easter Road rivals?
From the moment when Dimitar Mitov threw himself across goal to save Alistair Johnston’s effort in Saturday’s Scottish Cup final penalty shoot-out at Hampden, everyone at Hibs knew that life just became that bit harder for all at Easter Road. In a turn of events that doesn’t exactly feel new to long-suffering supporters, their team will now have to do things the hard way.
That doesn’t apply only to the suddenly daunting European path laid before them. In every aspect of the business, from recruitment to finance, losing the immediate guarantee of European football until January – a prize worth up to £7 million, according to some estimates - will have an impact. Yet there is still hope. Let’s break it down.
Lucrative jackpot still up for grabs – how many games are Hibs guaranteed?
UEFA’s access list for their club competitions is based on the idea that winning the Scottish Cup is a greater achievement, one more worthy of recognition, than finishing third in the Scottish Premiership. Which means that Celtic’s failure to defeat Aberdeen saw the Dons claim their rightful place in European football, while Hibs were bumped down the pecking order.
Instead of heading into the Europa League play-offs, with a spot in the Europa Conference League proper providing a soft landing in the event of failure, Hibs now kick off their continental campaign almost a whole month earlier, in the second qualifying round of the Europa League. They’ll need to get through a couple of two-legged ties, then, in order to secure that Conference League windfall.
But … ah yes, it’s not all horrible news. Hibs COULD be seeded in at least one of their Europa League ties.
And they have a Conference League fallback at every stage. Not one but THREE parachutes to break their fall, so to speak.
So, even if they lose in the Europa League second qualifying round, they’ll drop into the third qualifying round of the Conference League. Failing in the Europa League third qualifying round would see Hibs go into the Conference League play-offs.
And, of course, should they progress to – but lose in - the Europa League play-offs, they’ll go straight into the Europa Conference League. The full league competition.
The absolute worst-case scenario still involves four European games. And there IS still a route to guaranteed league stage European football. It’s just much trickier now.
Top transfer targets and Black Knight recruits still on radar
When it comes to signing or even retaining players, Hibs still have a lot going for them. But losing that European guarantee might just make a difference, for players with any number of options.
If playing regularly in a UEFA competition is a must for you, as a player, signing for Hibs would now represent a gamble. Unless, of course, business is delayed until – they hope – David Gray’s men batter their way into the league stages.
That wouldn’t be ideal for Gray, who wants to get any business done early as he looks to build on a remarkable finish to his first season as a manager. But for the right player? Maybe a defensive midfielder under contract to a Premier League club but weighing up his options? That might be worth the wait …
The ambition this summer is still to tap into the Black Knight group’s expertise and recruitment ability. Billionaire Bournemouth owner Bill Foley can hardly complain about the club, in which he holds a minority stake, ONLY finishing third.
But a European guarantee, the certainty of knowing that players will get the chance to develop in UEFA competition as well as the Scottish top flight, would have sweetened any internal movement of talent. And kick-started the whole arrangement.
Easter Road board could do with the extra income of league stage football
In the last available set of accounts, Hibs posted losses of £7.2 million. All covered by the Gordon family, who were willing to bear the cost of making repeated managerial changes – incurring not merely pay-off costs every time they made a sacking, but an increased wage bill as each new gaffer was backed in the transfer market.
Sporting director Malky Mackay has demonstrated some clever footwork to alleviate some of the strain on that wage bill, shifting players out – either on loan or permanently – to bring down overheads. He’ll need to be on his toes again this summer, given the contract status of some players unlikely to ever feature in the first team.
Hibs chairman Ian Gordon has made it clear that, as the majority shareholders, his family will continue to cover losses. And he’ll be hoping, of course, that Gray’s men power their way through those European qualifiers to deliver almost exactly the amount of revenue needed to balance the books.
Doing things the hard way it is, then. The Hibs way. Hardly a shocking twist of fate, is it?