Hibs Euro chase points target revealed, as Gray's men pursue third place - and hope Celtic win Scottish Cup

Sixty-five points will do it. That’s what the numbers tell us, anyway. Heck of a target, when you consider the current points total of a Hibs team sitting in third place by the slenderest of margins.

Should David Gray’s men somehow bag 22 points from the next 27 available, though, they’d be virtually guaranteed to finish best of the rest behind the Old Firm. And then? Well, assuming the semi-finals go to form, it’s off to Hampden to cheer Celtic on in the Scottish Cup final … a game with the potential to change the entire European pecking order for Scottish Premiership hopefuls.

With their own hopes of lifting silverware over for the season, what are Hibs playing for? And what’s it going to take to reach the promised land of guaranteed group stage football in UEFA competition?

First things first – the top six

Gray has repeatedly said that simply securing a top-six finish at the split remains his priority. Given the way the current campaign started, and the hole Hibs dug for themselves over the opening months, it’s truly remarkable that they’re almost there with four games to go.

Yes, the table is tighter than a tight thing. There certainly appears to be potential for movement at the bottom end of the top half, with Motherwell on the right side of the line by just a single point.

But Hibs probably need no more than a point to make sure of their place among the elite half dozen who will go onto play for access to European competition. With teams below them all playing each other, it would be hard to see – just for example – seventh-placed Hearts making up the seven points separating them from their nearest rivals.

With four games to go before the split – Kilmarnock and Rangers away, plus St Johnstone and Dundee at home – and Gray’s men still full of confidence despite yesterday’s Scottish Cup quarter-final loss at Celtic Park, they’re almost home and hosed.

That’s just the start

Given the cutthroat nature of the post-split fixtures, it goes without saying that Gray would fancy picking up another hatful of points – eight or nine would do nicely, thanks – before being hurled into that mini-league against the top teams. Because history teaches us that finishing third takes something special.

Looking at the tables from the last ten ‘full’ seasons, ignoring the Covid-shortened campaign, the third place teams have finished with an average points total of 65. Well, it’s actually 65.1.

There have, however, been some wild fluctuations going back to the 2013-14 campaign. Rangers were only three clear of fourth-placed Hibs when they finished third with a whopping 70 points in season 2017-18, while a couple of teams have finished just outside the top two with 68 points – and Kilmarnock needed goal difference to separate themselves from fourth-placed Aberdeen despite bagging 67 points in season 2018-19.

On the flip side, Aberdeen finished third with just 57 points a couple of seasons ago. And Hibs themselves only needed 63 points to put them SEVEN clear of their nearest rivals when they finished third in season 2020-21.

It’s not an exact science, then. But Gray will want to build a comfort zone into his calculation. While applying the one universal truth of footballing mathematics: The more points you get, the better chance you have.

European rewards on offer

Even if you’re not a numbers nerd constantly keeping tabs on Scotland’s UEFA coefficient after every match day, you’ll probably be aware that things are changing a bit in terms of when and where our clubs enter European competition next season. There is NEVER anything simple about this process.

Starting at the top, Scotland’s champions – odds-on to be Celtic – will no longer go straight into the Champions League. They’ll have to win a two-legged play-off just to get into the league format that proved such a hit this year.

Second place doesn’t deliver the same hit as it has done in previous years, either, with the Scottish Premiership runners-up now facing an extra round of Champions League qualifiers – three in total – before they reach the promised land. But the team finish second, most likely Rangers, will have Europa League group stage football guaranteed.

Beyond that, well, it gets complicated. The only guaranteed prize for finishing third is a place in the second round of Europa League qualifying – meaning Hibs, for instance, would have to get through three ties to reach the group stages …

Cup winning impact

There is, however, a quirk. This season’s Scottish Cup winners go straight into the Europa League play-offs – and even failure at that stage will be softened by a guaranteed place in the Europa Conference League group stages.

If Treble-chasing Celtic win both the league and the Cup, however, this Europa boost falls to the team finishing third. A crack at UEFA’s second-tier competition, with the hefty consolation of the Conference League – worth a fair few million, however you count up the revenue streams – certain to make up for any disappointment in the play-offs.

What it all boils down to, then, is a straightforward numbers game. Finish third. Hope Celtic win the Cup. And look out the passports. Sounds simple when you put it like that …

Your next Hibs read - Gray knows fans will keep faith in race to finish