Hibs numbers reveal where REAL problem lies for David Gray's men - and it's nothing to do with late goals lost
Attacking stats show Easter Road side are close - but need to find a finishing touch
From the elite end of the game to the furthest reaches of grassroots football, every coach who ever picked a team and settled on a formation will be familiar with the sentiment. Aye, we’re creating loads of chances … we’re just not taking them.
In the case of Hibs, David Gray is more than entitled to deliver endless variations on this favourite theme of gaffers the world over. Because his team’s inability to seize upon golden opportunities is currently making all the difference to a side who will spend the international break seething over losing the first Edinburgh derby of the new season.
Only Celtic better at creating chances
Forget the eyeball test for a minute. And look at the cold, hard facts showing that Hibs sit second in the Scottish Premiership when it comes to expected goals (xG).
Only Celtic have a better score by this oft-derided metric, which is still the best indicator of a team’s attacking phase play. It is also, indirectly, a measure of how clinical a side are.
Boyle has scored just one Scottish Premiership goal this season
Hearts are currently scoring at around 150 per cent of their xG (10.8), having hit the net 16 times in the league. That speaks to a degree of quality finishing from Derek McInnes’ side.
Hibs, by contrast, are underperforming against their expected goals, having scored 10 from an xG of 12.3. Which is a problem. But also a source of encouragement?
The picture is even more stark when you consider the stat called, by the expert analysts at FotMob, Big Chances. Here is where Hibs really excel … and fall short, if you follow the argument.
They’re sitting joint second in the rankings by this metric, having carved out 18 really good opportunities in seven Scottish Premiership games. Only Celtic, with 28, have cut opponents open with more frequency than Hibs, with Hearts away down in sixth.
Again, this points to the difference between the teams when it comes to burying those Big Chances. As if anyone needed a reminder after Saturday’s events at Tynecastle, when both sides created one … and, well, you know the rest.
Individually, it would be hard for Gray to hang his hat on any one player to pull his team out of this mini depression. Kieron Bowie is his team’s top scorer in the Scottish Premiership with three goals so far – but he’s on a four-game drought at the moment.
Of more concern is lack of support for Bowie, with skipper Martin Boyle having only scored once in the league. And that was from the penalty spot. Boyle missed a decent chance on Saturday, of course.
The good news? Although the numbers for Hibs have tailed off in the last two games, as you’d expect for visits to Celtic Park and Tynecastle, arguably the two toughest venues in Scotland at the moment, they are still getting into good positions.
Everything Gray says on this subject can be backed up by cold, hard, logical numbers. But those numbers also expose a flaw – a temporary one, Hibs will be hoping – when it comes to the most difficult and most important element of football.
Sure, the number late goals conceded – and the nature of some of those goals – will continue to catch the eye of critical fans. Yet time spent sharpening up finishing skills might deliver a more immediate uplift in a team close, but not quite close enough, to finding their form.