Hibs tactical tweaks put up big numbers - so can Gray crack victory code?

Can we call it a back three-and-a-half? Whatever name you put on David Gray’s tweak to his team shape in the madcap midweek draw with Aberdeen, it certainly caught the eye.

If a subtle change of formation was never going to solve all of the problems contributing to Hibs being stuck at the foot of the Scottish Premiership table, there were aspects of the game plan that worked very well. And a few gaps that need to be plugged, if Gray’s men are to get the best out of all available working parts.

The gaffer is keeping his options open about whether to stick with a sort of fluid 3-5-2 for this weekend’s trip to Fir Park, with the return from suspension of Jordan Obita giving him another option. He’s clearly considering it.

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Asked if this was a formation we might see again, Gray said: “Sometimes. I've said often about being flexible within shape. I think you've seen that even just with the players that we're playing, it gives you that flexibility. That was part of recruitment at the start of the season as well, players that are able to play in different positions so you're able to change within game.”

The basics

Formations are only suggestions, really. Starting positions that put players in a general area of influence. Bear that in mind whenever you see a diagram showing any team in a too-specific shape.

That said, Hibs went for a kind of attacking 3-5-2, with Junior Hoilett pushed ahead of Joe Newell and Nectar Triantis, in possession against Aberdeen (see photo 1). Hoilett was given freedom to support the front two of Mykola Kuharevich and Elie Youan, with the former doing a lot of hard running, and the latter also afforded license to roam at times.

Photo 1 - Hibs in possession | Canva/author's own notation

Did it work? Up to a point, yes. Going forward, anyway. And that’s been a problem area for Hibs.

Generally to be found near the foot of the standings in all key attacking metrics, the home side put up some impressive numbers on Tuesday night, getting off a season-high 21 shots against Aberdeen. Four of those shots hit the target.

One of the most interesting stats available to analysts and coaches these days is touches in the opposition box. While no-one pretends it’s some sacred indicator of performance, it does offer up the odd clue about how effectively a team is putting the opposition under stress.

In a game that ended 3-3, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Hibs turned in a season’s best 31 touches in the Dons penalty area, easily topping even their most all-action league performances to date. And, for those keeping count, Hibs’ expected goals (xG) ‘score’ of 2.20 had only been topped once in their previous 13 Scottish Premiership games.

Author's own work with Canva

In possession, the ability of both wingbacks to get forward and the game smarts of Hoilett saw Hibs create plenty, then. Especially in the first half. Something to bear in mind for the future, at least.

Changing it up

Out of possession, Hibs provided a headache for anyone trying to nail down their shape, Gray pointing out: “We obviously changed within the game to have a back four at times as well. So that's important to be able to have a bit of flexibility. Especially at this level when you come up against such varied opponents every week.”

Leaving aside the late, late changes that saw Gray throw on bodies in pursuit of injury-time goals, Hibs knew they couldn’t just drop into a back five when Aberdeen had the ball. And leaving three central defenders against a team with pace and wit on the wings was always going to be a non-starter.

What they did instead, then, was to create a different sort of block for Aberdeen to play through – especially when looking to either build from the back or go long from goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov. Lewis Miller tucked into right back in what was effectively now a back four, Nicky Cadden stepped forward a position and Hoilett dropped into midfield wherever he was need.

Photo 2 - a rough outline of Hibs without the ball. | Canva/author's own notation

Photo 2 is by no means a definitive blueprint of exactly how it looked at any given moment; guys had to improvise and find themselves in slightly unfamiliar positions at times. But it gives you an idea of how Hibs intended to keep Aberdeen out.

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The problems came, as they often do in football, during transition. When Hibs surrendered possession, the back three looked a little vulnerable – and the space in behind Cadden, in particular, was exploited effectively and repeatedly by Aberdeen. There is no such thing as a perfect formation that covers every possibility. Not one that doesn’t involve sneaking another three players on the park, at least.

Motherwell present a different sort of challenge. Gray’s selections lately have certainly been on the bold side of brave. So it’s hard to second guess what he’ll do on Saturday. But there was enough about Hibs in midweek, late drama notwithstanding, to suggest that we might see some version of this game plan again, at some point.