'That's why Hibs are third' - how Gray banished 'inevitable' threat to position after horror start

Dundee fans won’t appreciate the distinction. But the Dark Blues have acted as a sort of weather vane/barometer when it comes to judging the atmosphere around Hibs, providing accurate readings on pressure, wind direction – and the chances of a devastating storm rocking the very foundations of David Gray’s new-build squad.

In the aftermath of yesterday’s comfortable 4-0 home win over Tony Docherty’s side, Gray himself reference the distance travelled by his team since their 4-1 humiliation at Dens Park back in November. Looking back on that bleak day on Tayside, at least one former player-turned-pundit confesses that he feared an “inevitable” parting of the ways between the first-year head coach and the club he'd captained to Scottish Cup glory.

Just three days after that new nadir in a horror start to Gray’s first campaign as gaffer, of course, everything changed. Aberdeen at home on the Tuesday night, Rocky Bushiri’s late equaliser … and the rest is geography, with Hibs moving on up the table – with just the one setback at Celtic Park – at a rapid rate.

Currently riding the momentum of a 17-game unbeaten run in the league, Gray’s men tightened their grip on third place - potentially crucial in the race for guaranteed European group stage football next season, Scottish Cup results pending – with a resounding victory on Sunday. A win that went from so-so to emphatic by dint of substitutes bringing fresh firepower to the contest just when the visitors were beginning to wilt.

Bushiri bagging his fourth of the season may have set the ball rolling yesterday. But Kieron Bowie’s double and Dwight Gayle’s well-taken finish put an exclamation mark on a result that sent a message to rivals.

Martin Boyle tops the individual scoring charts at Easter Road with a best-ever season’s haul of 16 in all competitions. The Socceroos star, benefiting from a formation that allows him to seek and destroy defensive weaknesses, is getting plenty of back-up from team-mates, with Bowie – not long back from injury – joining Gayle, Nicky Cadden and Mykola Kuharevich on five goals in the current campaign.

‘Spreading goals around has Hibs flying ...’

“I think that's the sign of a good team,” insists former Aberdeen and Rangers player turned BBC Scotland pundit Richard Foster, the former wide man pointing out: “You look at, for example, with all respect, Dundee and the goals that Simon Murray has scored. They're down to the bottom of the league.

“They've got one goal scorer in their team. And that tends to be the case for a lot of sides. They've got one main goal scorer.

“But when you can spread those goals around, and when you can bring players off the bench, you can come on and contribute the way Bowie has there, among others, Nicky Cadden coming on for his brother, whipping in a fantastic cross … When you've got that quality coming in off the bench, that strength and depth, that's why Hibs are third on the table.

“That's why they've been absolutely flying. And full credit to Hibs for sticking with David Gray.

“You know, he's a young manager, but full credit. I think he deserves so much credit because not only has he got Hibs on this fantastic run, but he's changed quite a few things. The formation, the personnel, the way they play, and a good coach, a good manager is able to make changes not only in-game, but from game to game, and he's certainly shown that he can do that.”

Expected goals and mean streak in defence

Despite their horrific start to the season, with just one win from Gray’s first 13 league games as gaffer, Hibs are three points clear in third place mainly because of their ability to hit the net. They’re third in the Premiership on goals per game, expected goals (xG) and what the FotMob stats folk call big chances created.

Allied to a new mean streak in defence, with yesterday’s game their third straight clean sheet, this multi-faceted threat in the final third makes Hibs worthy of their league position. And provides yet another reminder of just how far Gray, with three SPFL Manager of the Month awards now sitting on the window sill of his office at East Mains, has come since that dark day in Dundee.

Speaking after yesterday’s game, former player Rory Loy told BBC Radio Scotland: “I can't say enough how much credit David Gray deserves, because I'll be honest, after that Dundee fixture earlier in the season, up at Dens Park, I just didn't see any way back. I thought it was inevitable.

“And when you get that amount of goodwill, based on what you did in the playing career, you don't want to tarnish that. It got to the point where I felt like, if it goes on any further, that may happen, that goal in the Scottish Cup final will never be forgotten.

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“But you don't want to be remembered for ending things that way as the manager. And I thought it was heading that way.

“My goodness me, he’s proved me wrong; 17 games unbeaten, fantastic to watch, well coached, well organised, clear ideas, clear identity on the pitch, good signings made. All the credit in the world goes to David Gray's squad.”

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