What Scotland need to qualify for Euro 2024 knockouts after opening Germany defeat

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Scotland’s Euro 2024 opener in Munich was far from how fans would have wanted to get their campaign underway. While Germany were the overwhelming favourites ahead of kick-off, it was still a disappointing evening for the Tartan Army, who couldn’t have done much worse in their first outing of the tournament.

A 5-1 win for the hosts started their Euro 2024 off perfectly but left Scotland with a mental mountain to climb in their remaining fixtures. Germany were 2-0 up before 20 minutes on the clock and after Ryan Porteous was sent off for his awful challenge on İlkay Gündoğan in the box, things went from bad to worse for the Scots as the penalty was dispatched by Kai Havertz.

Down to ten men and trailing 3-0 at half-time, Scotland’s frustrations only rose in the second half. Two more goals passed Angus Gunn either side of an Antonio Rüdiger own goal for Germany, which gave the travelling Scots at least something to cheer about from an otherwise dreadful outing.

What do Scotland need to survive Group A?

While very few expected Scotland to come away with a result against Germany on Friday, the 5-1 defeat is still a sore one to take for both their players and fans. Captain Andy Robertson admitted after the match that his side ‘got it all wrong’ and ‘didn’t really show up’ but knows the team must put the work in to come back fighting against Switzerland.

“We’re well-backed over here, we know that, we’ve got so many good supporters,” the Liverpool star told ITV. “Today was hugely disappointing but you’re playing against the host nation and it’s the first game, you don’t get much tougher than that. But we have to bounce back quickly because there was a lot of things wrong about today and we have to sort it, it’s quite a quick turnaround.”

While the loss will certainly be weighing heavy on the Scots, their Euro 2024 campaign isn’t over and they still have a chance of doing what no Scotland team has ever done before them — progress beyond the group stages of a major tournament.

Their next challenge will be Switzerland on Wednesday, before their final group stage game against Hungary on June 23rd. Even if Scotland lose to the Swiss, their hopes still may not be mathematically over. Three points on the final day against Hungary could be enough to go through, as the four best third-placed teams will also advance to the knockouts. However, leaving everything to their last group match will surely only invite unnecessary pressure and there is no guarantee it will give them their ticket to the next round, which is why earning at least a point against Switzerland would be a huge boost.

Steve Clarke had already set his sights on earning four points during the group stage, reflecting that it’s pretty much always enough to ‘guarantee’ progression. A win against Switzerland would be the ideal scenario headed into the final match-day next weekend, leaving them with a point to find against Hungary, although two wins from two would be ideal, obviously. If Scotland can bank four points, there is a high chance they will indeed progress into the knockouts.

Assuming based on their opening form that Germany will top Group A with nine points, beating all of their opponents, the Scots could well finish second depending on Switzerland and Hungary’s results. A lot of eyes will be on this afternoon’s clash between the two — if either team wins, Scotland will need to make sure they do not lose against them when it’s their turn. A draw would be ideal, leaving the Tartan Army with more breathing space.