The story behind David Gray's Hibs sacking: Recent record, Hearts factor - and who might be next
Hampden semi-final looms large as new boss search underway
A Hibs manager undone by Hearts. While there is more to David Gray’s demise than that, of course, there is no denying the influence of Edinburgh football politics, with all its anger, fear and fury, in the decision just reached by the Easter Road hierarchy.
Bad enough that their great city rivals came within a whisker of winning the Scottish Premiership last year, the excitement generated across the city standing in stark contrast to the feeling of apathy surrounding Hibs for the second half of the campaign, in particular. Even worse that the Gorgie boys won the first derby of the current season with something to spare.
Derby fears a consideration
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But how much worse was it likely to get? That would have been chief among the concerns of directors as they met to weigh up the risks and rewards of sacking Gray.
The prospect of Hibs heading into next month’s Premier Sports Cup semi-final with this team, under this management, playing in this manner, was clearly a factor in the decision to let Gray go. Hearts at Hampden is a tough enough fixture, as Hibs history shows, without the added complications of a gaffer under pressure, under fire from the club’s own supporters – and under-performing in the role that he’d occupied for just over two years.
Many fans had long since lost patience. And will now turn their attention, despite the best efforts of those in charge, to the structure and support network that allowed this situation to develop.
As Hibs reach yet another turning point after two-and-a-bit years of life under Gray, then, there are some key questions to be asked. About what went wrong, of course. But also, more importantly, in relation to what happens next.
What has he done for Hibs lately?
There’s always an equation to be worked out when it comes to making a decision on any manager. A ledger, if you like, full of credits and debits.
On the plus side for Gray, he made winning at Ibrox something of a habit, becoming the first Hibs boss EVER to beat Rangers away from home in three consecutive season. He also bagged an extremely rare away double over Rangers AND Celtic last season.
With that club record unbeaten run in the league achieved in his first season at the helm, he wasn’t short of plus points. And that’s before you factor in European football; Hibs hadn’t made it into UEFA competition in consecutive seasons for half a century before Gray pulled it off in his first two years in charge.
And yet, there have been lows. Failure to reach the league stages in Europe, despite valiant efforts against Legia Warsaw last season and, in more painful fashion, Gent just a couple of weeks ago.
Finishing fifth last year was a very meh return on fan optimism, meanwhile, given the thrill of their run into third place just 12 months earlier. The fact that they never really looked like overtaking Motherwell, who were playing with such verve and vision, didn’t help.
And do not, for one single minute, underestimate the impact of losing four of the past five Edinburgh derbies – including the last three on the bounce. That, as much as the poverty of performance in last night’s meek surrender to lowly Kilmarnock, definitely influenced this decision.
What’s the immediate challenge for this team?
Win back the support of a fan base who have fallen out of love with their team. Which is exactly where David Gray came in, if you can remember that far back.
There has been anger among punters, yes. But there has also been a level of apathy that can become poison to a club.
Had Gray still been at the helm for Saturday’s visit of Aberdeen, what would the atmosphere have been like? How many would have turned up?
It doesn’t actually make a lot of football sense to bin the manager just two training sessions out from a game. Not when the longest international break in history is looming on the horizon.
But vibes, man. Vibes. They had to do something to improve that air of despondency.
What do fans want?
Joy. Simple joy. Plus wins, of course. Easy when you put it that way.
You can’t blame fans for being fickle. They’re just not very happy with the football being played at the moment.
There are, of course, mitigating factors. Injuries. So many defensive injuries, in particular. Individual players falling off form at the wrong time. Serious questions over a summer of recruitment that has added little in the way of game-winning quality.
Next up is …?
Ah, now you’re asking. It all depends on whether they go domestic or seek out the next Jens Berthel Askou. Assuming there’s one of those out there.
No doubt Ian Gordon and Malky Mackay will have an identikit of what they’re looking for. But football clubs have a tendency to get distracted by shiny things, so you’d rule nothing out.
Which players have a future under the new boss?
A tough question. Obviously Josh Mulligan and Owen Elding are both stand-outs, top talents who are going to fetch a big fee on the open market at some stage; had Elding not missed the last five matches, Gray might – might – still be in a job today.
On current form, however, few are making a very good case for being given an extended run in the team. Which means they’ll inevitably rally to produce the predictable new manager bounce, raising obvious questions about why they couldn’t have done that a few weeks earlier …
After Aberdeen at home on Saturday, Hibs get three full preparation weeks to build for the next challenge. A run of league fixtures that veers between winnable and daunting, followed by that big day out at the national stadium.
The fact that Hibs have never beaten Hearts at Hampden is precisely the sort of historic factoid that Gray used to deploy as motivation for his players. But the pressure surrounding that semi-final on November 1 has, at least in part, denied him the opportunity to make more history.