Hibs lost a life in Perth - now it's 3/3 or perilous scenario could emerge for key men at Easter Road
Mounting pressure and fans losing faith in decision makers is a dangerous scenario for all
The good news, scant as it may seem, is that Hibs have an entire week of training, analysis, reflection, tweaking and reinforcing basics ahead of them. If they are ever to have a chance of righting the wrongs currently undermining their ambitions, here it is.
But nobody should underestimate the scale of the challenge facing head coach David Gray as he looks to turn around the fortunes of a squad limping towards the international break looking bruised, battered and – most damningly – short on the sort of hard-nosed professionalism that comes as standard with most teams at this level.
Nor should anyone ignore the pressing nature of the crisis currently confronting the club as a whole.
Footballing maths is simple
Heading into Sunday’s game against St Johnstone in Perth, looking for an immediate rebound from a third straight Edinburgh derby defeat, Hibs found themselves at the centre of a fairly straightforward – and easily understood – piece of footballing calculus. A mathematical formula that was absolutely essential to ease the pressure on players and coaching staff alike.
With four games to go until that long, long international break, Gray needed three wins – most definitely including this weekend’s Premier Sports Cup quarter-final against Ross County in Dingwall – to avoid heading into the shutdown under serious scrutiny. There was room for one slip-up, at best.
And now? Securing a Hampden semi-final with a win in the Highlands on Saturday must only be the start of a three-win week that sees Hibs host Kilmarnock and then Aberdeen before the Scottish Premiership goes on hiatus. That’s just maths.
The mood of travelling fans in Perth, from kick-off to time up, was not one of unqualified support. Patience with players, management and those responsible for recruitment, is wearing thing. And there are only a couple of ways that ends.
Heading into a rare full week of training, then, what have we learned from the sharp decline of a team who were within touching distance of the UEFA Conference League less than a fortnight ago? Here are the main talking points surrounding Hibs.
Basics, basics, basics
Good lord, the opening goal. Where to begin? Probably with Jason Holt enjoying the freedom of McDiarmid Park to advance upon a ragged and retreating Hibs defence; never a good look.
Adam Mayor was slow to react and stop the cross. And if anyone has a clue over what Jason Kerr was doing, beyond Gray’s own assertion of “guessing”, please send it on a postcard to East Mains.
The penalty concession leading to St Johnstone’s second goal wasn’t much better. The back four was incredibly narrow, Mayor dragged too far into the centre to get out quickly and cut down the initial cross – and Martin Boyle was always playing catch-up in trying to chase down Enes Alic without any cover.
Lining up in a fluid 4-2-3-1 formation, with appropriate tweaks in and out of possession, Hibs lacked both solidity and stability. But it’s always too easy for everyone – players as well as punters – to complain about shape or tactics, when there must be a degree of personal responsibility.
This week should be about focusing on the basics. Because, as things stands, Hibs are simply off the pace, out of step and out of sync in too many areas.
Squad depth still an issue
The hip injury sustained by Grant Hanley left Hibs without a recognised and experienced central defender able to step on the bench. Which begs an obvious question.
Did the Easter Road club really end the summer transfer window with a stronger squad? That was the aim. But it didn’t feel like it at McDiarmid Park.
At present, the list of those unavailable because of injury includes Rocky Bushiri, Jordan Obita and, at the other end of the park, Owen Elding. Jack Iredale has been serving a suspension following his red card against Hearts last Thursday night.
Following the departure of Warren O’Hora late in the transfer window, Hibs did bring in Serbian central defender Marko Ivezic on deadline day. But he’s played 25 minutes of football – including 19 minutes in a friendly – this season.
Will Ivezic be ready for Saturday? Is right back Alex Williams, a loan signing from West Brom with limited first-team appearances, ready to feature at any point?
“In terms of Marko, Alex, boys coming in, they'll benefit from a full week's training before the quarter-final on Saturday,” said Gray, who finished the St Johnstone game with a sort of improvised back three of Kanayo Megwa, Kerr and Mayor. Which looked exactly how you’d expect.
Numbers behind the defeats
Stats can be sliced, diced and selectively used to prove any point. Let’s try to look at the numbers in the whole.
Taking the St Johnstone game in isolation, Hibs edged the contest in terms of possession, total shots, touches in the opposition box, passes, accurate passes, successful dribbles … there were positive indicators in there. But there’s always a but.
St Johnstone pipped Hibs on expected goals (xG), shots on target and big chances created. All vital criteria when you’re trying to win a game.
Be aware, however. Looking at last week’s derby defeat, Hibs bossed Hearts in virtually every statistic – from xG down – bar the one that really matters.
Problems at both ends
Defensively, Hibs are sitting tenth in the Scottish Premiership, conceding 1.8 goals per game. That’s a major problem.
Yet Gray consistently and correctly points out the issue of failing to take chances. Hibs must find a cutting edge, must find a way to turn opportunities into goals, if they’re to avoid this season becoming mired in mediocrity.
Martin Boyle struggled badly before being hooked at half-time. Nathan Lowe took his goal well but, well, you know ...
Is Thibault Klidje the answer? Until/unless Hibs sign a free agent striker able to consistently put the ball in the net, the club record signing probably deserves a chance to prove – or disprove – his worth.
Any positives?
Nicky Cadden getting on the pitch. That’s it. He only got 15 minutes, but it’s a start.
“The problem that Nicky's probably had, and where he's found himself, as quite a number of the players have, is because of the amount of games they've had, there's been a lack of training time, really,” said Gray. “So he's not trained a lot.
“He'll benefit from the little exposure he had today. Clearly, when you're chasing the game, somebody like Nicky, to bring on what he's got, that’s why you do that.
“He certainly wasn't ready to start a game of football yet. But he, along with a number of players, will benefit from a full week's training this week.”